Comparing the current political climate to four years ago I am forced to come to a startling conclusion: Progressive politics is actually healthier now. There are not only very healthy anti-war and anti-globalization movements, but the fight for worker's rights, for healthcare, for education seems to be much more vital now than at any time since the early nineties. Serious progressive candidates vied for the Democratic nomination and because of this the winning ticket has leaned more sharply to the left than Clinton did (Clinton was a outspoken proponent of Free Trade whereas Kerry, while having voted for NAFTA, is now criticizing it's effects on domestic employment and proposing remedies which would substantially alter it de facto if not de jure). This is all the result of the increasing polarization of the country into two camps: the haves and their dupes (right-wing talk radio junkies, people who think they have "made it" or will "make it" under the current economic system, etc.) one side and everyone else on the other. The 2000 elections took place in the midst of a cooling but still powerful economic boom. As a result most people had faith in the prevailing economic arrangement and were more willing to take their chances under it than under an alternative. As a result both politcal parties took a step to the center with this crucial difference: the Republicans never neglected their conservative evangelical base while Democrats did neglect their progressive and african american bases. So while the evangelicals joined the moderates and swing voters who had been moved by Bush's so-called "compassionate conservatism" the Democrats were left with only their own moderates: the progressives voted for Nader and african americans stayed home. This was enough to tilt the election in Bush's favour. I don't think this will happen again; Kerry and Edwards have both been actively engaging and energizing both progressives and minority voters and the moderates in the party will vote for the ticket regardless. This leaves the swing voters whom, because of poor job growth, stagnant wages, and concern over the occupation of Iraq, I think will more often than not vote for Kerry. As long as Kerry stays on message and on target (and providing there's not another attack) I think he has an at least 60% chance of winning.